This week Thursday 8/12 at 11:00 am the USDA will release The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Most have shifted focus to new crop as harvest has kicked off in the south. The state of Wisconsin has experienced rain showers in the last 48 hours which hopefully help finish out the corn and help start to fill bean pods. Boosting confidence in crop production and allow producers to sell great new crop values.

Figure 1 above is the December Corn CME futures board. When observing the last 2 weeks December corn has stayed in a constant pattern. If one was to draw a trendline on this chart it would appear almost flat. Seems as if the market is in need of a spark to make it hit that next trading range weather that’s higher or lower. Understanding that range of where the commodity has been trading and setting targets within those levels or just above should help lock in some new crop sales. Everyone has a different opinion on what levels or contract types they should be using, but minimizing risk is the key aspect.

In Figure 2 is an example of if you were to sell new crop cash corn at ALCIVIA’s Durand elevator today what your profit would be less your input costs. This is not true for all elevators as basis is different over ALCIVIA’s geography, but this is the truth when it comes to being able to sell $5.00 corn and what type of profit could come to an operation.

The 3rd Figure is the November Soybean CME futures board price. This market has shown more volatility over the last two weeks versus the corn market. In this figure alone there are serval peaks and valleys in just a month’s trading cycle. Drawing a trendline in this figure would be difficult for the last month, but for the last few weeks there has been a trend of a slight decline. This market with having more volatility and less carry than corn is one to continue to monitor and set target numbers to sell.

Figure 4 is an example of a chart if you were to sell new crop cash beans at the Fall River grain terminal today what type of profit an operation would have on an acre depending on yield and input costs. Understanding that this changes per location in our cooperative footprint, but there is opportunity in all markets.