The southern territory of the co-op has received its first new crop bushels. Harvest is starting to kick off in small pockets of the state. Basis values have moved more toward new crop values with few premiums left to sell as harvest is weeks or even days away. Understanding new crop basis and how the grain should flow is an important tactic this fall. The value of freight and time is what is important in these next months. Freight values in the Midwest continue to stay firm as there is a demand for grains and oilseeds to be moved in the last part of the old crop market and then transiting into a new crop harvest. The trucking market seems to carry on with driver and truck shortages. This may have an impact on fall harvest and how commodities need to flow. Basis, freight, and space are all influencers of each other and determine the market of where grain needs to go. 

The volumes of exports for the coming year are lower than last year that this time. The market has built carry in both the soybean and corn markets. Those spreads are continuously moving each day as the market tries to make its mind up. River markets have bounced back a hair this week after the pressure of Hurricane IDA. River terminals in the Gulf have turned back on, but barge freight continues to stay firm as the gulf does not see many purchases from China. The PNW is showing consistent values as China’s cargo freight is spreading to the west coast better than the gulf. Natural gas continues to rally as supplies stay tight and there are projections for a cold winter outlook. The fertilizer and input market seems to be keeping firm with the influences of Hurricane Ida and barge freight. We are in a high price environment for all commodities. Be forward-thinking and look for opportunities in the future while they still present themselves. Volumes never have to be large, but ask yourself if you’d profit and be satisfied with that choice.

Stay safe and enjoy harvest!!