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Business card contact info for grain marketing specialist Melisa Schmidt

Happy September! The chatter in the market has to do with Hurricane Ida, but that is only 1% of what is happening. Here are a couple of reasons affecting the markets. For the last couple of months, export projections have been less than this time last year, with South America’s corn crop getting bigger because of cycles and more acres. South America is about to start planting again. Looking forward to the U.S. corn crop in 2022 with expanded acres. Higher prices do take a toll on demand. The chatter of being very tight for ending stocks has proven to be false again. Funds continue to stay long in grains with historic position sizes. Freight globally has been impacting all agricultural products.

USDA is set to release its monthly supply and demand report on Friday at 11 am central time. Private analysts have reduced corn yields from 176.5 bushels per acre to 174.4 and beans from 51.5 to 50.0 bushels per acre. These numbers are still higher than USDA’s August numbers. 

Exports are starting to resume in the lower Mississippi River, but some exports are unable to reach their facilities at this point. With drought conditions out west and in the northwestern corn belt, watch for corn to flow differently from this last year. There is a significant freight difference from the Gulf to PNW. 

With harvest right around the corner, make sure to visit your offers or put offers in. Don’t make decisions based on what the person next door is doing. Make smart decisions and goals for your operation only.  Please reach out to any one of us to help you with your goals.

ALL. TOGETHER. HARVEST!

Melisa

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Business card contact info for grain marketing specialist kasey baker

As we approach the last days of summer and children head back to school, we get into the mindset of Fall Harvest. New Crop 2021 officially starts tomorrow, and the bids are reflecting that. Although I’m not quite ready for pumpkin spice everything, I am eager to see what this harvest will bring. The conversations most grain farmers are having with the dairy farmers currently revolves around chopping dates and tons to predict what their corn harvest is going to look like. What are your theories on the correlation? Let us know what you are seeing and hearing about predicted harvest dates and results. Here is what the traders are telling us.

From close last Friday 8/27, the corn futures are down almost 30c for fall delivery. The corn crop appears to look above average. There has been no change in the good-to-excellent rating for the prior week which is holding at 60%, almost in line with last year at 62%. Corn is progressing a little faster than last year at 91% dough, 59% dent, and 9% mature. We are still waiting to hear results from damages due to Hurricane Ida. The hopes were that the south was going to have early harvest corn to help bridge the gap from the 2020 to 2021 corn stocks.

We have also seen a drastic drop in the futures price of beans. The November board closed Friday at $13.33 and currently on Tuesday morning we are at $12.88. Beans are 56% good-to-excellent which is unchanged from last week but down 10% from 2020. Beans are also maturing faster than 2020, with 93% setting pods and 9% dropping leaves. China continues to make purchases for beans; however, bean exports are falling shorter than expected week-over-week.

As markets are changing, farmers should still be focusing on the profit that is still available for ’20, ’21, and ’22 crops. Talk with your Grain Marketing Specialist to see about making sales and the options we have that could work for all sizes of operations.

Have a great day!

Kasey Baker

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Business card contact info for grain sales leader Beth Helding

The transition from old crop to new crop is starting soon and the trade is reflecting a sooner than expected harvest. This week’s crop ratings reflected 41% corn dented vs. 22% last week and on the same pace as 41% last year. The US bean crop has 88% pods set compared to last week at 81% last year and ahead of the of 87% 5-year pace. Cash remains king and the local cash basis levels are reflecting immediate demand. The Sept/Dec corn spread has chopped around a bit recently and remains flat to start the week.

At the time of this writing, the grain markets are mixed with corn a .02-.03 higher and beans bull spreading with Sept beans up .08 and new crop Nov down .01. The bean spread is telling a big story on demand; however, we would recommend pricing out old crop beans sooner than later as commercials will be shifting over to new crop pricing and basis will be reflected off the new crop contracts soon with Sept. 1st right around the corner.

I wanted to take the opportunity to highlight our FOB program available to producers this fall. We know that everyone is feeling the staff shortage pinch this year, so if that’s you, please call your grain marketing specialist to arrange to have your grain picked up off the farm and hauled to an ALCIVIA location this fall – we are happy to help!

Beth Helding

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Grain exchange manager Judy Uhlenhake

Tighter supplies add support to grain prices. The USDA report last week made significant changes to the commodity landscape. The report shocked the market with a much larger than expected drop in the national corn yield. USDA lowered yield expectations from trendline 179.5 bpa dropping the August estimate to 174.6 bpa. This lowers production, falling from 15.165 billion bushels to 14.75 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell from 1.432 billion bushels in July to 1.242 billion bushels.  

Soybean yield estimates were lowered from 50.8 bpa to 50 bpa. Production estimates came in at 4.439 billion bushels, 66 million bushels lower than July. Ending stocks reported 155 million bushels which is historically tight domestic stocks. Soybean condition declined in this week’s report implying a yield at 49,4 bpa. 

Wheat prices have gained momentum after the report revealed declining production in the U.S., Russia, Europe and Canada. All wheat yields were lowered by 1.3 bpa to yield 44.5 bpa. Ending stocks fell 38 million bushels to 627 million bushels. Higher wheat prices could mean more wheat acres planted at the expense of corn and beans.

We are excited to announce a new platform, Barchart, for getting our bids texted to you. During the conversion some people may have been missed getting added to the new platform. Please use the link below to sign up for daily bids for your location to continue getting the bids.

As we get closer to harvest, please reach out to your grain market specialist to help you make marketing and storage decisions. We are here for all your marketing needs.

Have a great day!

Keep the faith and stay safe!

Judy Uhlenhake

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Business card contact info for associate grain merchandiser dylan beaver

This week Thursday 8/12 at 11:00 am the USDA will release The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Most have shifted focus to new crop as harvest has kicked off in the south. The state of Wisconsin has experienced rain showers in the last 48 hours which hopefully help finish out the corn and help start to fill bean pods. Boosting confidence in crop production and allow producers to sell great new crop values.

Figure 1 above is the December Corn CME futures board. When observing the last 2 weeks December corn has stayed in a constant pattern. If one was to draw a trendline on this chart it would appear almost flat. Seems as if the market is in need of a spark to make it hit that next trading range weather that’s higher or lower. Understanding that range of where the commodity has been trading and setting targets within those levels or just above should help lock in some new crop sales. Everyone has a different opinion on what levels or contract types they should be using, but minimizing risk is the key aspect.

In Figure 2 is an example of if you were to sell new crop cash corn at ALCIVIA’s Durand elevator today what your profit would be less your input costs. This is not true for all elevators as basis is different over ALCIVIA’s geography, but this is the truth when it comes to being able to sell $5.00 corn and what type of profit could come to an operation.

The 3rd Figure is the November Soybean CME futures board price. This market has shown more volatility over the last two weeks versus the corn market. In this figure alone there are serval peaks and valleys in just a month’s trading cycle. Drawing a trendline in this figure would be difficult for the last month, but for the last few weeks there has been a trend of a slight decline. This market with having more volatility and less carry than corn is one to continue to monitor and set target numbers to sell.

Figure 4 is an example of a chart if you were to sell new crop cash beans at the Fall River grain terminal today what type of profit an operation would have on an acre depending on yield and input costs. Understanding that this changes per location in our cooperative footprint, but there is opportunity in all markets. 

Posted on
Business card contact info for grain marketing specialist Melisa Schmidt

Happy August! Markets are waiting for the supply/demand report next Thursday, August 12th at 11 am. There could be some fireworks, as the USDA will release projected yields on corn and beans. Markets are waiting to see if there is any indication of lagging demand.

Crop ratings on corn dropped 2% to 62% good-to-excellent. Overnight market on corn was down but as of writing this, corn is up. On an interesting note, we started the corn ratings at 76% good-to-excellent.  The rating has dropped six out of the nine weeks. The five-year rating is 67%. Another note, the crop rating is tracking similar to 2017, which wound up with record nationwide bushels per acre at 176.6. StoneX will release their crop estimate today. Brazil cut their second corn crop again from 60.5 to 59.6 million metric tons (MMT). Total production will be the lowest since 2017/2018 at 87.1 MMT.  

The soybean crop rating went up 2% to 60% good-to-excellent. Our five-year average is 65% vs. last year at 73%. Soybeans are under the pressure today with crop rating improving and some indications of lagging demand. Crush numbers for June came out yesterday with lower-than-expected numbers of 161.7 million bushels (mbu) down from last year at 177.3 mbu at the same time.  May crush numbers were 173.5 mbu. 

With the markets moving so quickly, make sure to have working offers out there. Look at numbers past Fall 2021 and have the conversation with us about opportunities to lock in some profit. Also, if you have working offers, make sure to review them each month.

ALL. TOGETHER. AWESOME.

Melisa Schmidt

Posted on
Business card contact info for grain marketing specialist kasey baker

Rain makes grain! From the radar it looks like everyone across the great state of Wisconsin received rain overnight. Although some areas received damaging winds or possible tornados, the threat of a Derecho may have passed.

As of Monday, 7/26/21, the crop progress and conditions report of corn, beans, and spring wheat quality is declining. Corn is down 1 percent from last week on the good to excellent rating to 64%, which is down from the 5-year average of 72%. Corn is making progress on maturing a little ahead of average. The corn is at 79% silking and 18% dough. Beans are down 2 percent from last week on the good-to-excellent rating to 58%, this is down from the 5-year average of 72%. The bean conditions are also progressing quicker than the 5-year average. Beans are at 76% blooming and 42% setting pods. The biggest market mover was the decline in the good-to-excellent rating in spring wheat moving to 9%, which seems to be directly affecting the winter wheat market. This news is coming as the winter wheat harvest is coming to an end, causing an unseasonal rally in the SRW wheat market. 

SRW Wheat is up 15c, and exports have been steady.

Corn is up 7-8c, with corn exports for 21/22 almost 5x higher that orders from the previous week.

Beans are up 15c across the board. The exports for beans have been quiet. There are concerns with temperatures in South America. 

There are still conversations about the drought monitor, so I have attached some chats of the percent of corn and beans that are affected by drought.

Have a Safe Day!

Kasey Baker

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Grain exchange manager Judy Uhlenhake

Markets are trading higher after yesterday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report. The report showed increased demand for US corn, with higher feed use and residual and exports. They left ethanol use unchanged, which was a surprise given the strong pace of ethanol production since early June. They also lowered Brazil’s corn production 5.5 million tonnes to 93 million. China was major destination for exports last week at 18.8 million, followed by Mexico at 8.5 million and Japan at 7.5 million. US corn conditions improved slightly but remains below average.

Soybeans are higher today following the report. USDA didn’t change its previous soybean production estimate of 4.4 billion bushels. USDA lowered soybean imports, crushing’s and exports. With the offsetting changes ending stocks remain unchanged. US soybeans are 46% blooming vs average of 40% and 10% were setting pods, which is equal to average.

USDA report forecast lower than expected wheat production. All wheat ending stocks are at 665 million bushels compared to average trade guess at 729 million bushels. US winter wheat is 59% harvested, which is behind the average of 65%. US wheat condition declined sharply for the seventh consecutive week, with 55% in poor to very poor condition.

The wheat combines started rolling early in the week, but mother nature put a stop to progress with cloudy damp weather. The early wheat that came in was good quality. Let’s hope for a good rain shower for the corn and beans followed by several days of sunshine to get the wheat in the bins.

Your grain marketing specialist is available to get your grain sales in a good position before harvest. 

A lot of exciting things are happening with the rebranding of our name. ALCIVIA, which may sound unique, comes from the Latin word for community. While our name has changed, our commitment to both customers and employees remains as strong as ever.

Keep the faith and stay safe!

Judy Uhlenhake